By Clare Kirwan, contributor, and Morgan Blair, contributor
Since January, Harrisonburg City Public Schools (HCPS) has been losing on average 25 students a month.
April Howard, the division’s chief officer for student support, said HCPS originally noticed changes last September, but began monitoring the decline more closely in January.
Large school systems routinely experience fluctuations in enrollment said Superintendent Michael Richards. Typically, there is an increase in the fall, a slight decrease around December and then an increase again around March. What’s concerning about this year’s declining enrollment is that it is coming at a time when HCPS has been seeing increasing enrollment over the past two years, he said.
The school system receives approximately $8,800 in state funds per student enrolled, and even more for English Language students, said Jessica Martin, the assistant director of finance.
If the decline continues, it could result HCPS losing between $200,000 and $1,000,000 less in state funding for the year, Martin said. The schools receive this funding at the beginning of every school year, and are planning around the possibility of some loss in state funding.
Daniel Kirwan, HCPS executive director of finance, said that because enrollment had increased last school year through January 2025, total enrollment only fell by 30 students in the 2024-2025 school year when they took the average in March. In the two years prior, however, the system gained 50 students when the March average was reported.
Kirwan said that while the trend in enrollment since January is concerning, official enrollment numbers for the coming year will not be available until after the first few weeks of school. The overall net loss will likely result in a decrease of less than 1% of the school system’s budget, he said.
Still, Martin said, the potential decrease in state funding is concerning because it comes at a time when HCPS could also lose Titles II, III and IV funding from the federal government. The school system is also no longer receiving local pandemic funds, she said.
As a result, HCPS is incorporating contingency plans into its budget for the upcoming school year,
One example is paying staff with local funding rather than with Title II or III funds, in case these are taken away by the Trump administration, Martin said.
Kirwan said that HCPS will freeze some open positions until enrollment increases again, and is shifting teachers as needed to meet student-teacher ratios. HCPS is also prioritizing staff retention.
“We’re continuing to focus on keeping the great educators that we have and continuing to provide them with good salaries and good benefits,” Kirwan said.
Howard said the recent decline in enrollment pushed her staff to examine the data more closely. Family-school liaisons have conversations with families as they leave the school system to gather some of this information.
Howard said the largest number of students leaving HCPS transferred to other divisions in Virginia.
The number of students experiencing homelessness since Covid has also increased. This leads them to believe that one factor behind the decline in enrollment is a lack of affordable housing in Harrisonburg – although there is no way to be sure, Howard said.
“I know there’s a decline. I know it’s not a huge decline. I know that it’s coming at a time when federal money is threatened, and we feel very vulnerable as a school division that has a mission to give these students the best experience that we can,” Richards said. “I feel like we do a good job of that, but we have to have money to do that, and so this is a very trying time for us.”
HCPS officials acknowledge that the recent decline may just be a fluctuation, and may not continue. Still, they have made budgeting decisions and contingency plans to account for possible changes in enrollment and funding.
“We were able to have conversations around what [the decline] could mean and then now we have that awareness, we’ve created the contingency plan. We’ll continue to monitor and have those ongoing conversations,” Howard said.
Editor’s note: HCPS Executive Director of Finance Daniel Kirwan is contributor Clare Kirwan’s father. Contributor Morgan Blair interviewed Daniel Kirwan for this story.
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